A week before the US election, the Study at SOAS team sat down with Professor Lawrence Sáez to hear his predictions on the outcome.
Now the votes have been counted and Donald Trump is set to take ownership of the keys to the White House on Friday 20 January 2017, in doing so becoming the country’s 45th President. It was an outcome that few predicted. Nate Silver, one of the country’s most successful psephologists (having correctly predicted 49 out of the 50 states in the 2008 US election) placed Clinton at 71/72% favourite to win. Other established polls were far less conservative in their predictions; it was not uncommon to see projections of a Clinton victory in the 90-100% region.
Here’s what Lawrence had to say: