SOAS University of London

SOAS China Institute

China’s Economy: Powerhouse, Menace or the Next Japan?

Mr. Arthur R. Kroeber (China Economic Quarterly)

Date: 17 October 2016Time: 6:00 PM

Finishes: 17 October 2016Time: 7:00 PM

Venue: Brunei Gallery Room: Brunei Gallery Lecture Theatre

Type of Event: Lecture

IMG - 20161017 Kroeber  


In the last three decades China has surged from impoverished backwater to become the world's second-biggest economy and largest trading nation. Yet it now faces great obstacles as it makes the hard transition from an investment-driven to a consumer-oriented economy, a shift chronicled by Arthur R. Kroeber in his book China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know (Oxford University Press, 2016). The headwinds of a rapidly aging population, rampant corruption and an enormous national debt are slowing the country's growth. Profound reforms to the state-owned enterprises, the innovation system and the financial sector are required if China’s economy is to prosper in the decades ahead. But it is far from clear whether the government of president Xi Jinping is willing to make the sacrifices in political control needed to secure the nation’s economic future. At the same time, China is exerting an ever-greater influence on the rest of the world, through the burgeoning international investments of its companies and policies such as the One Belt One Road initiative. Will China mature into a global economic leader, trigger a financial crisis, or stagnate like Japan? Drawing on his keen understanding of China’s political economy, Arthur Kroeber will assess how China’s economy will shape the world in the 21st century.


Arthur Kroeber is founder of the Beijing-based Gavekal Dragonomics research service and editor of the China Economic Quarterly. A 20-year resident of China, he is also a non-resident senior fellow of the Brookings-Tsinghua Center and adjunct professor at the School of International and Public Relations, Columbia University.

Organiser: SOAS China Institute and SOAS Department of Economics

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