SOAS University of London

SOAS China Institute

China’s Political and Economic Prospects in the Context of the Deepening Trade War

Mr. George Magnus (Author, analyst and former Senior Economic Adviser, UBS Investment Bank)

Date: 6 November 2019Time: 5:30 PM

Finishes: 6 November 2019Time: 7:30 PM

Venue: Paul Webley Wing (Senate House) Room: SG36

Type of Event: 0

Note: Internal event not open to external attendees.


The trade war between China and the US is only partly about trade. Deep down, it is about commerce, industry and technology policies and rules - and ultimately about standards and beliefs. There are no winners in contrast to President Donald Trump's assertion, and there are forces that can impede China's ambition in contrast to President Xi Jinping's insistence to the contrary. As the 2020s dawn, the trade war is one of the important events outside of the Chinese Communist Party's control, threatening its desire for control and stability as well as its capacity to successfully address a confluence of conomic pressures building at home.


George Magnus is an independent economist and commentator. He is also a Research Associate of both the SOAS China Institute and the China Centre,
Oxford University. He is a former SOAS Masters student. George was the Chief Economist, and then Senior Economic Adviser at UBS Investment Bank from 1995-2016. He had previously worked as the Chief Economist at SG Warburg (1987-1995). George's China focus derives from a long period of observation and study that goes back to his first visit in 1994. He is a regular contributor to the Financial Times, Prospect Magazine, BBC TV and radio, Bloomberg TV and other outlets. His written work and a blog can be found on his website at

George’s current book, Red Flags: Why Xi’s China is in Jeopardy was published in 2018 by Yale University Press, and has since appeared in paperback (August 2019), with newly commissioned material. It examines China’s contemporary economic and commercial challenges and aspirations to modernity in the light of the governance system of President Xi. His earlier books are The Age of Aging (2009) and Uprising: Will Emerging Markets Shape or Shake the World Economy? (2011).

Organiser: SOAS China Institute

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