Climate change and fiscal crisis in agricultural commodity-dependent countries
Key information
- Date
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2:00 pm to 3:00 pm
- Venue
- Online
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- MS Teams
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- Seminar & Event highlights
About this event
Weather shocks, in the form of temperature and precipitation anomalies, are increasing and are having strong negative effects on all economies, especially on countries dependent on the production and export of agricultural products.
In this paper we study how weather shocks affect the probability of agricultural commodity-dependent countries to incurr in a fiscal crisis. We do so by first providing empirical evidence of the main effect and its amplification mechanisms, and then by writing a DSGE model able to rationalize the empirical findings and through which study the transmission of such shocks.
Finally, we use the model to assess the effects of different adaptation policies and the optimisation of their financing mix between debt and taxation.
Authors
- Florian Morvillier (CEPII)
- Erica Perego (CEPII)
Header image credit: A Chosen Soul via Unsplash.
About the speaker
Erica Perego is an economist at CEPII in the “Macroeconomics and International Finance” program. She holds a PhD in economics from the Université Catholique de Louvain and the University of Luxembourg (2014).
Before joining CEPII, she was a forecaster and researcher at CEPREMAP (2015-2017) in the Global Projection Model project joint with the IMF, and did a post-doc at the University of Evry-Val d'Essonne (Labex MME-DII, 2017-2018).
Her main research topics are international macroeconomics and international macro-finance, with a focus on developing countries. She has published her research in reviews such as the Journal of Monetary Economics and the Journal of International Money and Finance.
