Research on Paramilitaries

Lead researcher

• Jonathan Goodhand, Professor, SOAS Department of Development Studies 

Funders

• SOC-ACE, University of Birmingham/FCDO

Timeline

• Phase 1: Jan 2024 – Dec 2024
• Phase 2: Feb 2025 – May 2026

Whilst a great deal of effort has been directed towards making peace processes, and the political settlements that underpin them, more ‘inclusive’, there is limited work focused specifically on paramilitaries and their connections to organised crime. Paramilitaries present different challenges for war-to-peace transitions compared to anti-government insurgents. While both types of groups may engage in criminality, paramilitaries have different relations with the political establishment, creating a distinct nexus between paramilitaries, illicit economies, and organised crime, with important practical implications. 

However, ‘best practice’ in conflict management, peacebuilding, post-war crime reduction and related policy recommendations tends to be shaped by experiences with insurgents and/or do not distinguish between different types of armed actors. This is a serious blind spot that this project has begun to tackle.

The project has produced a series of research papers and policy briefing notes examining the relationship between paramilitarism and organised crime in war-to-peace transitions. The outputs build on the initial conceptual research and develop practical policy insights, analytical frameworks and case studies to inform responses to the paramilitary–organised crime nexus.

Phase 1: Developing the conceptual framework

The first phase of the project drew on research from the Drugs and (dis)order programme to develop a conceptual framework for understanding the paramilitary–organised crime nexus. The two research papers explore this framework and examine its application in Afghanistan, Colombia and Myanmar.

• Research Paper 26: Meehan, P., & Goodhand, J. (2024). Coercive brokerage: The paramilitary–organised crime nexus in borderlands and frontiers (Working Paper I, SOC ACE Research Paper RP26). Serious Organised Crime and Anti‑Corruption Evidence (SOC ACE), University of Birmingham.
• Research Paper 28: Meehan, P., Goodhand, J., Acero, C., & Koehler, J. (2024). Coercive brokerage: Paramilitaries, illicit economies and organised crime in the frontiers of Afghanistan, Colombia and Myanmar (Working Paper II, SOC ACE Research Paper RP28). Serious Organised Crime and Anti‑Corruption Evidence (SOC ACE), University of Birmingham.

Phase 2: Developing policy and practice responses

Following a six-month policy lab involving senior policy makers and researchers, and drawing on experience from a wider range of cases, the second phase developed a series of outputs to support policy engagement and practical responses to the paramilitary–organised crime nexus.

1. Overarching research and policy framework

These publications provide the overarching analysis of the nexus and a framework to help policymakers understand and respond to it.

• SOC ACE Research Paper 42: Paramilitaries and Organised Crime in War-to-Peace Transitions: Policy Challenges and Responses. Offers a foundational synthesis exploring global trends and the "fragmentation of violence" in the 21st century.
• SOC ACE Briefing Notes 43: Addressing the Paramilitary-Organised Crime Nexus in War-to-Peace Transitions: A Framework for Policymakers. Provides guiding questions that can be integrated into conflict analysis to better understand the paramilitary-organised crime nexus, and sets out starting points for engaging with it. 

2. Thematic policy briefing notes

Four short briefing notes explore the implications of the paramilitary–organised crime nexus for key areas of policy and programming.

• Briefing Note 44 Peace Processes: Addressing the Paramilitary-Organised Crime Nexus in War-to-Peace Transitions: Implications for Supporting Peace Processes recognises that peace emerges through iterative bargains and offers insights on how paramilitaries should be included in processes.
• Briefing Note 45 DDR and SSR: Addressing the Paramilitary-Organised Crime Nexus in War-to-Peace Transitions: Implications for Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration and Security Sector Reform Programmes offers insights on how DDR/SSR in paramilitary affected contexts required tailored strategies, improved intelligence and analysis, conditionality for inclusion and cross-government coordination.
• Briefing Note 46 Development Programmes : Addressing the Paramilitary-Organised Crime Nexus in War-to-Peace Transitions: Implications for Development Programmes offers five insights for consideration when designing and delivery development programming in contexts affected by the paramilitary-organised nexus.
• Briefing Note 47 Organised Crime Responses: Addressing the Paramilitary-Organised Crime Nexus in War-to-Peace Transitions: Implications for Addressing Organised Crime demonstrates how organised crime analysis needs to be integrated into conflict and governance assessments to improve understanding of political-criminal networks and support responses to extend beyond national borders to target transnational dynamics. 
• Paper 48 is a new practitioner-oriented analytical framework that brings it all together in an ‘everyday political analysis’ kind of way.

3. Practical analytical guidance for policymakers

This briefing note translates the project's research into a practical tool for policymakers and practitioners.

• Briefing Note 48 SOC ACE : Undertaking Political Economy Analysis of the Paramilitary–Organised Crime Nexus: Guidance for Policymakers provides a diagnostic tool for practitioners to conduct political economy analysis of the nexus.

4. Country case studies

Three case studies explore how the paramilitary–organised crime nexus operates in different contexts and draw out lessons for policy and practice.

• Briefing Note 49 – Colombia: Colombia Case Study: Political Negotiations with Paramilitary ‘Allies’, shows that efforts to address paramilitarism achieved only partial and temporary gains because they focused too narrowly on demobilising fighters rather than dismantling the wider political, economic, and governance structures that sustained paramilitary power.
• Briefing Note 50 – Northern Ireland: Northern Ireland Case Study: A ‘Public Health’ Approach to Addressing the Paramilitary–Organised Crime Nexus, highlights the value of a transformative “public health” harm-reduction model that addresses paramilitarism not only through enforcement, but also by tackling the social, economic, and institutional conditions that sustain paramilitary influence.
• Briefing Note 51 – Myanmar: Myanmar Case Study: The Paramilitary‑Organised Crime Nexus in Myanmar’s Borderlands, shows that militias are central components of the Myanmar military’s borderland governance system, highlighting the need for responses that address their structural role in organised crime, counterinsurgency, and transnational illicit economies.