How can we end the war in the Middle East when states are locked in?

As war between Iran, Israel and the US widens, Dan Plesch, Professor of Diplomacy and Strategy at SOAS, explains why a short, limited war was always a fantasy, and what might contribute to a sustainable peace.

How do we stop this war? The leaders of Israel, the US and Iran all not only want the fight but also want peace and justice on their own contradictory terms. The risks of a wider and more intense war are great.  

Flaws of political and military logic

As the White House desperately uses more violence to escape a trap of its own making, I would not be surprised by the US trying to seize Islands in the Gulf, Uranium deep in Iran, and using nuclear weapons.  

The US has been planning and gaming these options for decades. War Secretary Hegseth sees himself as “The Man”. The man to overturn all liberal, legal and humanitarian taboos.  

A prolonged war would deepen unemployment and recession, disrupt trade and energy routes and increase poverty.

For its part, Iran only has to stay in the fight to prevent Trump ‘declaring victory’ and walking away. Instead, we may see Trump locked in war amidst a stock market and economic meltdown ahead of midterm elections. Do not be caught thinking, “Oh they could not be that crazy?” 

A wider and deeper war matters not only for the region, but for the wider world. A prolonged war would deepen unemployment and recession, disrupt trade and energy routes and increase poverty far beyond the battlefield. 

All sides are under pressure from their own political logic, the key figures appear more inclined towards escalation than compromise. That is one reason de-escalation looks so difficult.  

How do we de-escalate this war?

So what could produce a way out? The most realistic answer is not a military one. It is political pressure from many states. Countries across the world have strong reasons to avoid a wider war: the risk of economic depression, disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and the danger of being pulled into a conflict with no clear end. That creates some leverage.

Political deals are shaped by power, pressure and interests, including oil. It may be an uncomfortable truth that is still part of how wars end. 

China, Western states, Gulf states including Saudi Arabia could all be part of that pressure. The United Nations matters here too. It remains the main place where states can try to broker a deal and build a multilateral way forward.

There may also be more transactional routes to a settlement. Political deals are shaped by power, pressure and interests, including oil. It may be an uncomfortable truth that is still part of how wars end. For example: the Trump kleptocrats get into Iranian Oil and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps get a cut of increased Iranian oil exports.

We propose a COP for Weapons

We cannot keep moving from one unnecessary war to the next and act as if this is normal. If we are serious about stopping future escalations, we need to talk again about arms control, disarmament and international agreements that are monitored and enforced. Lasting weapons deals were made by the West and the USSR until shredded in recent years.  

Deterrence is an ancient pre-atomic concept that is prone to failure and never permanent. Fortunately, the challenge of checking up on cheating is made easier in the digital age. The SCRAPWeapons.com at SOAS is leading the way. There is a UN backed “COP for Climate”. We propose a COP for Weapons.  

Disarmament is a lot more realistic than the naïve belief that wars are human nature, but they never go nuclear.  Any ceasefire and peaceful settlement in the Gulf needs wrapping in arms control and disarmament.

There is no easy exit from this war, but there is still a possible one, as the military logic eats itself.

The views and opinions expressed in SOAS Blogs are solely those of the respective authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organisation or act as an endorsement. 

Header image credit: Myko Makh via Unsplash.